Despite the presence of 15,000 well-equipped UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon in addition to 15,000 Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) troops, an unknown group suddenly decided on Thursday morning to launch rockets from the South into Israel.

The first questions to ask, of course, are, “by whom and why now?”
 
There are four groups in South Lebanon well armed enough to launch such attacks. Two of them, the LAF and UNIFIL, act in a peacekeeping capacity, with absolutely no history of deliberately and arbitrarily attacking Israel, making the chances it was either of them zero. That narrows it down.

The next candidate is Hezbollah — the Iranian-inspired “Party of God”— which has the full capacity to lob rockets against its southerly neighbor and has in the past. And then there are the various pro-Syrian Palestinian factions — in particular the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), the primary suspect in Thursday’s rocket launching. The destructive powers of the group, headed by Ahmad Jibril, should not be underestimated.

But why launch such an attack now? Motive and opportunity.

First, Iran may want to open a new front against Israel via its proxies in South Lebanon to help rescue its beleaguered colleague Hamas and ease pressure on the group, especially given its less-than-stellar performance against the Israeli army in Gaza: To date, the IDF has not faced very fierce resistance in Gaza since launching its offensive on December 27. The number of Israelis killed and equipment destroyed in comparison to the size and scope of the operation has been minimal. Moreover, the fiery rhetoric on behalf of the Hamas leadership at the outset of the conflict has since proven little more than hot air.

Hezbollah, for its part, maintains similar violent rhetoric when it comes to the issue of Israel and similarly does not seem to have a problem inviting the Jewish State to engage in a war on Lebanese soil. Considering the widespread death and destruction happening in Gaza, the Lebanese should step back and ask whether the Party of God’s “divine right” to possess its own private arsenal – and use it – is appropriate and in the best interests of Lebanon.

Secondly, as it has in the past, Syria is vying to take the role of mediator in settling the conflict in Gaza, undoubtedly to accrue undue praise and use its diplomatic playing cards — one of which may well be Lebanon. The Assad regime’s powers of persuasion seemed to work on French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who, after his visit to Damascus on Wednesday, was convinced that “Syria can provide an important contribution to a ceasefire.” Whether that solution comes at the cost of Lebanon remains to be seen.

Given the mediating role in the Gaza crisis that Egypt is taking up, it should come as no surprise that Iran and Syria feel threatened and are looking for any excuse to trump their old enemy Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Hamas has been making calls to include Syria in the Cairo-led peace negotiations, and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has urged the Egyptians to topple Mubarak’s regime.

With Syria and Iran’s desire for expansion, and given Thursday’s rocket launching from South Lebanon, the main worry for the Lebanese is the peacekeeping capacities of UNIFIL and the LAF. If a combined 30,000 troops are unable, or unwilling, to impose security in the South, where is Lebanon headed?

It is the duty today of the Lebanese government to step up, assert its sovereignty and authority and preserve the security of the people of all Lebanon — especially those in the South. Lebanon cannot allow another conflict to erupt with Israel based on the decisions of an unelected few, and it must do everything it can to avoid another costly human tragedy that may well send the country into the throes of a civil or regional war.

Rather than requesting outgoing American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to stop US support for the massacres in Gaza, it would prove far more prudent for Lebanese leaders to prevent massacres from occurring here by stopping the country from once again becoming intractably involved in yet another unnecessary and destructive fight with Israel.