Hezbollah is today paying the price for its military assault on May 7, 2008. Although it forced the Lebanese state to withdraw the decisions that allegedly pushed the Party of God to turn its arms against other Lebanese, Hezbollah seems to have lost the larger battle.

According to a new opinion poll released in Lebanon by the International Peace Institute (IPI)  58% of Lebanese feel that Hezbollah’s actions were unjustified while 59% felt that Hezbollah had been weakened politically as a result.

The survey also shows that the majority of Lebanese are concerned that Hezbollah’s arms pose a risk of civil conflict, with 55 % saying the presence of weapons makes war with Israel more likely while 41% believed that Hezbollah’s arms will deter war with Israel. As many as 76% of Lebanese believe that only the army, not armed militias, should bear arms.

The poll was conducted for the International Peace Institute, a New York based think-tank dedicated to the prevention and settlement of armed conflicts between or within states, by Charney Research. The nationally-representative survey of Lebanese citizens (18 and older) involved 1,800 interviews between July 1 and 18, 2008 among all confessional groups in all regions of the country.












Numbers speaking

The figures show that the majority of Lebanese are aware of the dangers posed by Hezbollah’s insistence on retaining their weapons. Hezbollah may feel it is the most powerful political party in Lebanon, with the ability to make decisions on war and peace, but the reality, as presented by the poll’s findings, is that Hezbollah is facing a domestic problem. It realized after May 7 that it cannot effect change by force and that any violence would lead to a civil war, especially after the fierce resistance its fighters faced in the Mountain.

Hezbollah’s Christian ally, Michel Aoun, was also weakened by an alliance in which he is becoming even more embroiled. This weekend Aoun travels to Tehran to meet Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other senior officials, with a ceremony scheduled to be held in his honor. There were other PR blunders that impacted on the former army general. In August, Hezbollah shot down an army Gazelle helicopter on the eve of a cabinet meeting, during which a new army commander was supposed to be appointed, killing the Christian pilot Lieutenant Samer Hanna. This incident had negative repercussions in the Christian neighborhoods that Aoun claims to represent.

The setbacks come two years after the disastrous 2006 war, which despite claims of a Divine Victory by Hezbollah, demonstrated that ultimately the party could not protect the Lebanese and that the war was stopped only because of diplomatic efforts by the Lebanese state, resulting in UN Resolution 1701.

The case of Shebaa Farms could be another lost cause for Hezbollah, especially as Syria has shown that it is prepared to use diplomatic means to liberate the Golan Heights. Meanwhile, it appears that diplomacy actually works; it was reported that Israel may withdraw from Ghajar village by November 21. According to the IPI poll, 80% of the Lebanese support a deal between Lebanon and Israel that resolves outstanding grievances.

Hezbollah’s problematic alliances

To make matters worse Hezbollah appears more than ever tied to Iran and this has undermined its image among many Lebanese, including its own supporters, who saw it as an ultra-Lebanese party. Few are those who believe that, should Iran request Hezbollah to open up a front in North Israel that the party would refuse in spite of the obvious consequences.

And all this despite the fact that Hezbollah knows that ultimately it is a bargaining chip for both Syria and Iran in their negotiations with the US and Israel. If a deal is completed, and Syria and Iran receive guarantees to protect their interests and power in the region, then Hezbollah will be abandoned.

In this regard, Hezbollah is seeking today to shift from confrontation to dialogue, through reconciliation with its political rivals, in an attempt to protect itself internally. Reconciliation can also be a good method to ease tensions with its opponents, before the upcoming, critical debate on a national defense strategy.

And all the while Hezbollah is losing national support. According to the IPI survey, almost two-thirds (65%) think the Lebanese government can provide security while only one third (34%) believe Hezbollah can. Moreover, between 81% and 85 % favor all major Security Council resolutions on Lebanon, which call for the disbanding of Lebanese and Palestinian militias, the delineating of the border with Syria and establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries, a ban on arms shipments to militias and the creation of an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

This poll gives an idea of the issues that should decide the 2009 parliamentary elections.