In the past few weeks, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has expressed fears of what he considers “fundamentalist movements” in North Lebanon. He communicated these fears to the Lebanese and French Presidents and to a number of visiting politicians, before sending Syrian troops to the Lebanese border immediately after the explosion in Damascus on September 27. 

The troop deployment on the borders ignited concerns in Lebanon, where it raised the nightmare of a Syrian incursion. These concerns intensified when Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem stated to the daily Asharq al-Awsat last week that “controlling the borders requires two things: demarcating the borders and reaching a security agreement,” a device the Syrian regime could use to force the Lebanese state to cooperate and collaborate with Damascus on critical security issues and one that would signal the start of a Syrian return to Lebanon. 

Syria’s return 

The Syrian regime appears to be using the deteriorating security situation in the North, which it is linking to Salafist movements and the Damascus explosion, to reopen the file on security coordination between the Lebanese and Syrian agencies, while using the troops’ deployment as further pressure on the Lebanese state. Apparently, it has worked. Lebanese Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh emphasized the necessity of security coordination between Lebanon and Syria to control border smuggling.

The Lebanese president, army command and the interior minister have all deemed the deployment part of a Lebanese-Syrian understanding, but Minister of State Wael Abu Faour said on Tuesday that the Lebanese cabinet had not been informed of Syria’s intentions. According to the daily Assafir, Lebanese-Syrian dialogue is underway to discuss measures to control the borders, which culminated with a visit by Interior Minister Ziad Baroud to Damascus to meet his Syrian counterpart.

Currently, the coordination is not expected to exceed an exchange of information on “terrorists,” but there are legitimate fears that Damascus would increase its demands to include members of the Syrian opposition and even those Lebanese to whom the Syrian regime is not pre-disposed. Syria is also using the increasing international acceptance of Syria’s regional role, in addition to its Russian allies’ robust return to the international scene. The Syrian troop deployment on the border coincided with the arrival of Russian warships to the Syrian port city of Tartous.

Speaking to NOW Lebanon, Tony Badran, research fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, based in Washington, said that the recent discourse about security coordination between Syria and Lebanon is not new.

In January 2006, the Syrian regime, via Saudi Arabia, proposed an initiative calling for a reactivation of a security policy; it was immediately rejected by the ruling March 14 coalition.
 “Security coordination allows the Syrian regime to coordinate with the interior and defense ministers, army command, and information agencies, including the Information Branch, which was founded after the Syrian withdrawal in 2005, and which is the only apparatus that Damascus cannot manipulate,” he said.

According to Badran, Syrians are trying to use the security issue as a tool to influence Lebanese politics. “Now the Syrian regime is offering Lebanon this security agreement in return for diplomatic relations and implementation of border demarcation; however, this is dangerous because it will allow them to control Lebanon again,” he added.

An electoral card

The troop deployment raised fears of Syrian military intervention, similar to recent Turkish military activity in the Kurdish regions of northern Iraq, which were green lighted by the international community. Syria could be using an exaggerated Salafist threat in North Lebanon to obtain a similar green light, although analysts say that the because of the presence of allies in Lebanon, the Syrians probably do not need to conduct a full-scale military action.

Badran agrees that the security coordination development is indeed “a pressuring method employed by the Syrians to create a psychological state before the elections.” According to Badran, along with the military deployment, there is an organized campaign by pro-Syrian media in Lebanon aimed at suggesting that international and regional conditions have changed in favor of Syria, and that the Lebanese state will have to coordinate with the Syrian regime sooner or later. It is a campaign that continuously highlights the threat of Salafists in the North, and urges both countries to coordinate on security information and procedures.

Democratic Gathering bloc MP Marwan Hamadeh told Future News Television on Wednesday that the Syrian military deployment was designed to impact the March 14 alliance “electorally” because Akkar, Diniyeh and Tripoli have the country’s largest concentration of March 14 supporters. The presence of Syrian troops on the northern borders of Lebanon would boost the confidence of the March 8 bloc and influence the 2009 parliamentary elections, the outcome of which will surely determine the future role of Syria in Lebanon.