Monday’s visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem may have brought the idea of formal diplomatic relations with Damascus closer to the negotiating table, but the reality is more complex. Syria has never recognized Lebanon, and, given the supposed brotherly relations between the two, it is worth remembering that no Syrian president has set foot on Lebanese soil since March 3, 2002. Syria may just be going through the motions to please the French – who recently rekindled relations with the country former French President Jacques Chirac accused of killing former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri – but an even more sinister scenario is that a Syrian embassy in Beirut could turn into a Trojan horse, the first step in a return to hegemony.

Should Lebanon be seeking relations at any cost? A half-cocked deal could backfire, so cast-iron assurances on the detainees, water and border issues, as well as scrapping the numerous “brotherly nation” protocols to get relations off on an even footing, will go some way to ensure that a return to Beirut is not a return of the Baathist jackboot.

An act

When asked about diplomatic relations between Syria and Lebanon, Mouallem said during the press conference following his visit to Baabda Palace that Syria has its own set of conditions that should be resolved before establishing ties, an indication that the Lebanese and the Syrian definitions of diplomatic relations appear to differ.

On the issue of detainees, Mouallem came out fighting. Faced with a demonstration by the families of those Lebanese still in Syrian prisons, he pointed out that he “did not bring along the parents of the Syrians missing in Lebanon,” ignoring the obvious fact that anyone, from either country, who disappeared during the era of Syrian hegemony in Lebanon could only have been taken by his county’s intelligence services.  It was also clear that Syria is still not keen on handing over the Shebaa Farms to UN control, because “this does not end the Israeli occupation, and Shebaa is more than land, it is also water.”

Ossama Safa, head of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, told NOW Lebanon that the Syrian regime is trying to distract the West by appearing to go through the motions with Lebanon. “They are trading each small step for a high price,” he said.

In reality, genuine diplomatic relations with Lebanon are not in the Syrian regime’s interests. They would lead to an independent and sovereign Lebanon, which is not what Damascus wants, and the Syrians still hope that they can use their smaller neighbor as a bargaining chip in any regional talks.

Meanwhile, there is a move by the governing March 14 bloc to abolish instruments set up by Damascus, such as the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, which oversees the many controversial bilateral agreements such as the 1991 Brotherhood and Cooperation Treaty, which is also under threat.

In such a climate, it is hard to see how the two countries can reach an accord. Nasri Khoury, secretary general of the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, said Thursday that canceling the Brotherhood and Cooperation Treaty and disbanding the council would take Beirut-Damascus relations “back to zero,” adding that, as the ministerial statement was still under discussion before the vote of confidence, the cabinet should take a clear stance on the issue.

Syria is also waiting for the results of the 2009 parliamentary elections to see what leverage it will have internally, while internationally, it is waiting for the results of the US presidential elections, as it knows that only the US can determine Syria’s position as a regional player, its role in Lebanon, the advancement of its negotiations with Israel, and of course, its position vis-à-vis the international tribunal.

Therefore, Syria will probably make no concrete moves on diplomatic relations beyond this visit for the time being, and all sensitive issues, such as border demarcation, including Shebaa; Lebanese detainees; and the pro-Syrian armed Palestinian groups in Lebanon will have to wait to wait until the Syrian regime is reassured of its regional status.

Playing with Syria

Not surprisingly, from the Lebanese end, relations between the two countries makes up one of two controversial items in the long overdue ministerial statement, the other being Hezbollah’s arms, which is also linked to Lebanon’s relations with Damascus. No one is in doubt as to what is at stake. The March 8 opposition bloc wants to keep the phrase “special relations with Syria,” in the statement, while March 14 is looking to clearly delineate all problematic issues that need to be resolved.

But how can the Lebanese get the best out of any initiative? Carlos Eddé, head of the National Bloc, told NOW Lebanon that unless the country deals with the substantial issues and gets concrete results, diplomatic relations would be like moving Syrian military intelligence from Aanjar to Beirut.

“Syria is known to negotiate for the sake of buying time and postponing issues,” he said, adding that international policy is not a gentleman’s game. “Syria will not cooperate with the French initiative or the Doha Agreement unless it is given something in return.”

According to Eddé, Syria is only buying time until the election of the next US president to see how his Middle East policy affects Damascus. Moreover, the Assad regime is waiting to see if the March 8 forces become a majority, in which case, Syria will not have to offer much.

In fact, Safa believes that Syria is planning a gradual return to Lebanon. “They [the opposition] have now the obstructing third in the government. [The Syrians] are trying, through their proxies, to settle the ministerial statement to their advantage and are eager for their allies to become the majority after the 2009 parliamentary elections,” he said.

Safa believes that Lebanon should only accept establishing diplomatic relations with Syria on its own terms, especially since it has the moral high ground with the international tribunal and the detainee dossier. “Although we might not be able to reach anything soon, we should at least try, and this will embarrass Syria internationally,” he added.

As long as Lebanon still enjoys the support of the West and moderate Arab countries, diplomatic relations with Syria would not come at any cost for Lebanon. “Otherwise,” Safa continued, “the gains of the past three years will be reversed.”