President Michel Sleiman’s consultations regarding the identity of Lebanon’s next prime minister, which resulted in the nomination of outgoing Premier Fouad Siniora to reassume his post, marked the new president’s grand entrance into the Lebanese political game. After assuming the highest office attainable for Lebanese Christian politicians, the question is how Sleiman will craft a position for himself in the country’s political terrain.
However, the perceived neutrality that brought Sleiman to office as a consensus candidate leaves him in a precarious position in the short-term. He has assumed office with widespread backing, but no real political support base. In Lebanon’s polarized political atmosphere, he could quickly be transformed from an acceptable compromise candidate for everyone into a president truly supported by nobody. The fact Sleiman will only be given three ministers in the new cabinet may suggest that he is not fully trusted by any of the political blocs.
At least initially, Sleiman will be expected to continue playing the role of mediator between the rival factions. He can establish himself as someone who can forge consensus, and prevent the country from descending into chaos. As long as he can win broad-based support across the political groups, there seems to be little reason to change this approach.
However, President Sleiman will find it hard to maintain this impartiality throughout his entire six-year term in office. As Lebanon’s divisions inevitably resurface, Sleiman will find himself forced to come down on one side of many contentious issues. In doing so, he will likely form alliances and antagonize those whom he opposes.
Keeping the consensus
Sleiman will likely try to maintain his reputation for neutrality by filling his three cabinet seats with ministers from outside the established political circles. While he may appoint independents already on the scene, such as outgoing Defense Minister Elias Murr, many expect Sleiman to choose prominent individuals from the business sector, the army, or civil society. An agreement is already in place that the post of Interior minister will go to a Sleiman nominee – but on the condition that he selects a neutral candidate, acceptable to all sides.
Fares Soueid, the General Secretary of the March 14 Secretariat, explained to NOW Lebanon that the support of the pro-government forces for Sleiman was contingent on his actions as president. “Every day the legitimate state of Michel Sleiman’s has success, we are going to support Michel Sleiman,” he said. “And every time the illegitimate state of Hassan Nasrallah has success, it will be an occasion for opposition.”
The approach of the 2009 parliamentary election may mark the end of President Sleiman’s ability to remain a truly neutral figure. Soueid discussed the message with which the March 14 movement should enter the election season, in order to mobilize its supporters. “I think the political slogan should be the disarmament of Hezbollah,” he said. If many of the political parties allied with the March 14 movement do advocate the disarmament of Hezbollah, or stringent limitations on its use of weapons, Sleiman will have to align himself for or against these groups.
Building a base
The other question is whether President Sleiman will try to use the 2009 elections to get his supporters elected to parliament. Sleiman may find that he needs a parliamentary bloc to avoid slipping into political irrelevancy amidst the rival political parties.
Change and Reform bloc MP Ghassan Moukheiber, however, stated that he did not believe that Sleiman would attempt to parlay his popularity into an independent political movement. “[President Sleiman’s] election is not linked to any electoral faction, but rather a selection by the various political factors that he was the most appropriate candidate for this period,” he said. “I do not think that, in the public statements or in the private statements made by General Sleiman, he intends to come into competition with the existing politicians and political groups.”
In contrast, Soueid does expect Sleiman to have his own parliamentary bloc after the 2009 elections. “A lot of independent Christian citizens support the idea that Michel Sleiman is the new leader, representing their community inside the state,” he commented.
Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun has much to fear from Sleiman’s ascendancy. MP Michel Murr’s defection from the ranks of the Change and Reform bloc will weaken Aoun’s support base in the Metn, and simplify Sleiman’s job of peeling off former Aounists into his fledgling political movement. Sleiman’s support will also likely be strongest around his hometown of Amchit, in the Jbeil district. This also poses a problem to Aoun, whose electoral list swept Jbeil in the 2005 parliamentary elections, when Jbeil was united with Kesrouan as a single electoral district. These MPs may drift into Sleiman’s camp in advance of the 2009 elections, or find themselves defeated by his handpicked candidates.
Although he may remain nominally independent, by entering the political debate, Sleiman will forfeit his role as neutral arbitrator. He will become a political player in his own right, rather than a figure solely concerned with quelling tensions and mediating disputes. This will, in turn, force established political figures to forge new alliances based on Sleiman’s actions.
Like pulling at one strand on a spider’s web, President Sleiman’s entrance into the political game could have far-reaching effects for the political balance of power across the country.