It all seems such a long time ago, but its significance in the current crisis cannot be overestimated. General Federation of Labor Unions (GFLU) head Carlos Ghosn postponed the strikes scheduled for May 7 in an 11:30 a.m. press conference the day of.  Shortly thereafter, Christian protestors – most of them loyal to the Change and Reform bloc’s General Michel Aoun – left the positions they had assumed at dawn alongside Hezbollah allies at roadblocks throughout Beirut and in the capital’s southern suburbs, the largest of which were on the airport road and in the Corniche al-Mazraa neighborhood. 

In one fell swoop, the Hezbollah-led opposition’s Christian cover had disappeared, and Hezbollah and Amal were going it alone.  It only remains to be seen if Aoun’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding is also done for, as Hezbollah’s rash behavior continues unabated, and its actions become ever more abhorrent to its erstwhile Christian allies.

As National Bloc head and March 14 figure Carlos Eddé pointed out on Wednesday, “Hezbollah can no longer hide behind the organ that was called the opposition, especially not behind its Christian members, who vanished completely and refused enticement despite General Michel Aoun’s call for violence, chaos and vandalism.”

Change and Reform MPs, representing the vast majority of Christians in the opposition, are uncertain in their reactions to Hezbollah’s unilateral escalation of anti-government actions this week.  Though the bloc pledged at its regular Tuesday meeting to participate in Wednesday’s strike, the MPs today are unsure whether or not they committed the party to actually taking up arms with their allies. 

In a lengthy press conference late yesterday afternoon, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had little to say of Aoun, the Change and Reform bloc and his other Christian allies.  He did, however, assure viewers that he saw no civil war in Lebanon’s future, doing his best, in particular, to assuage fears of Sunni-Shia unrest.   

Most Free Patriotic Movement MPs – including Aoun – and party members have simply settled on dishing out half-hearted support for Hezbollah’s actions and Nasrallah’s remarks.  “I place all the blame on the government,” said Aoun.  “The fate of the government’s obstinacy is what we see in the streets of Beirut today. The government must revoke its decisions.”

FPMers gathered at the party’s Sassine offices Thursday to take in the day’s events and discussed the strikes and successive political statements with NOW Lebanon.  Together, they endorsed Nasrallah’s playful assessment of the crisis, commended Hezbollah’s actions this week, and reiterated their support for the Memorandum of Understanding between their party and Hezbollah, signed over two years ago.  But, stressed one member, “There was not one FPM member – not even one – on the streets today, even now.”  This, he said, was because the party had not yet taken a decision on its participation in this round of protests.      

Also speaking to NOW Lebanon by phone directly after the conclusion of Nasrallah’s remarks, Change and Reform MP Salim Salhab commented on how Wednesday’s strikes were about labor, but yesterday’s protests were about politics.  “After yesterday, it was decided that the problem was more of a political problem than a social problem,” he said.  However, he continued, “We do not have any position about what is happening today [Thursday], especially about what Sayyed Nasrallah said today, and what Hariri will say later.  I think that it will be a new era for the political struggle.”

The Change and Reform bloc will meet in two days to evaluate its position on Hezbollah’s continued protests. Personally, said Salhab, he believes the Memorandum of Understanding continues to hold strong.  “It’s going to be good in the future as a national platform,” he promised.  Salhab, however, was not sure on exactly what level Change and Reform supporters would cooperate with Hezbollah in protests and military maneuvers over the coming days.

For their part, March 14 Christians have opted to sit tight.  Speaking on their behalf, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea yesterday called on the government to exercise its authority and downplayed the possibility that either his supporters or other March 14 Christians would enter the fray. Tonight, reiterated these sentiments after a meeting of March 14 leaders in Maarab, recalling that “The use of violence will not save Lebanon” and calling Hezbollah’s recent activities “an armed coup on the nation, national unity, the constitution, the democratic system and pluralism.”

While it is unclear what this week and the next will bring, it is sure that May 7, 2008 will mark a turning point in Lebanese Christian politics.  The Christians since 2005 have been the country’s most divided confessional group, but there are sufficient reasons today to believe that the tide might soon turn.  With little respect or support coming their way from Hezbollah, and with progressively untenable positions on what’s best for the Christians, it makes perfect sense for Change and Reform MPs – just as MP Michel al-Murr did some weeks ago – to pause and consider where they stand and what they can do for their constituents.  Is their relationship with Hezbollah really all they had hoped for, or has the Party of God finally gone too far, even for them?