Like others, we are hearing reports that the opposition intends to take to the streets again, to close Beirut airport, seaports, and the roads to the US Embassy in Awkar and the Maronite Patriarchate in Bkirki.

We are heartened by such behavior; in fact we applaud it lustily. Why? Because nothing would so discredit the opposition as such irresponsible actions, especially at a time when the Lebanese are so truly fed up with the political crisis that March 8, more than the majority, is visibly exacerbating.

But before we sound too bitter, let’s for a moment deconstruct what such action might actually mean. First, if Hezbollah decides to go ahead with street action, what is the result likely to be? One of two things will happen: The army will either confront the protestors, forcing soldiers to fight civilians, or it will stand aloof and do nothing. In either case, the army would be discredited. Is that the opposition’s true aim in its continuing efforts to derail the election of Michel Sleiman as president?

You also have to wonder about Michel Aoun. If the opposition has a lame leg, it’s him. The General seems to believe that a majority of Christians prefer him to Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir. We have our doubts. We also remember that almost exactly one year ago, when the opposition tried to torpedo the Paris III meeting, Aoun was unable to mobilize very many of his own people to block roads in Christian areas of the country. By nightfall, the Aounists had been chased back into their homes, and Aoun was in convulsions about the lack of mettle of his partisans.

The reality is that while Aoun might still have some support, many of his followers are just not willing to give up a day of work on his behalf and cripple the economy as a consequence. Aoun always sold himself as the representative of legality, but all he is today is a persistent, petulant renegade; someone who has done as much as Hezbollah to undermine the state, the rule of law, the Taif Accord and the presidential election.

Aoun is also vulnerable elsewhere. Let’s not forget that the United States still has a stick over his head and those of his family members and closest supporters: a pair of executive orders – a travel ban and legislation allowing the blocking of property – to sanction anyone deemed to be undermining Lebanese democracy. If Aoun’s people obstruct roads, particularly the road to Awkar, the executive orders can be, and probably will be, extended to them. That would complete his international isolation.

More importantly, if such pressure forces Aoun to step back from his reckless behavior, this would deny Hezbollah its vital Christian partner. Does the party of God really want to be alone in the midst of a Christian area, blocking the Awkar road, with a hostile population all around and an irritated Lebanese army deployed ahead? Does Hezbollah really want to be blamed alone for blocking Lebanon’s lifeline to the world: the airport? The party has hidden behind Aoun for much of the time, but place it in the forefront of action, and suddenly all tension coalesces between the Sunni and Shia. And we believe Hezbollah when it says that it wants to avoid this. 

Is it us, or did you also sense that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in his interview on Wednesday night, was walking a fine line between Syrian priorities and Iran’s apparent desire to avoid a breakdown in Lebanon? If we are right, Nasrallah’s threat to take to the streets is a sop to Syria, which must be reading with some anxiety statements by American officials to the effect that Iran is playing a positive role in Iraq. Nothing is worse for Damascus than to see progress in an Iranian-American dialogue, while the Syrian-American dialogue is dead. But what does Iran have to say about acts in Lebanon that might lead to Sunni-Shia clashes? After all, Tehran is improving its ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and is evidently eager to lower sectarian animosity in Iraq.

So let us repeat: If the opposition wants to go ahead and incinerate itself completely, it should take to the streets, make our life even more miserable than it already is, and heighten the prospect of a new civil war, this time between Sunnis and Shia. It’s a great plan. A fantastic one, really. One the opposition’s worst enemies couldn’t improve upon.