In recent years, an underground war has been taking place between Israel and two of its archenemies, Hamas and Hezbollah. The killing of Hamas operative Mahmoud Mabhouh two weeks ago in Dubai is reminiscent of the assassination of Hezbollah’s top military commander, Imad Mugniyah, in Damascus in February 2008.

Mabhouh, one of the founders of Hamas’s military wing, Izzadin Kassam, was found dead on January 20 in his hotel room a day after he landed in Dubai. Faik Mabhouh, the victim’s brother, told the Times, that Mahmoud Mabhouh was electrocuted and then strangled.

In a statement, the Dubai government said that the initial investigations showed the crime was likely committed by a “professional criminal gang” and that the perpetrators had left the country. UAE authorities, as quoted by the National, suspected the involvement of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, while Hamas directly accused the Israeli government of the crime.
 
“This is not the first political assassination perpetrated by the Israelis on Arab soil,” said Mounir Maqdah, commander of Fatah’s military wing in the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian camp in South Lebanon.

Indeed, over the years, Israel was allegedly involved in the deaths of a number of “terrorist group leaders” inside the Arab world, from the 1973 killing of Kamal Adwan, the PLO's chief of operations, and PLO veteran Mohamad Youssef Najjar, in Verdun, Beirut, to the killing of Izzadin al-Sheikh Khalil, one of the founders of Izzadin Kassam, in a car bombing in Damascus in 2004. Ironically, the latter was replaced by Mabhouh.
 
According to Hajj Maher Oueid, head of Ansar Allah, an Islamist faction close to Hezbollah, Mabhouh fled the Occupied Territories years ago to escape the Israeli intelligence services and settled in Syria. Nevertheless, Hamas claims that Israel tried but failed to kill Mabhouh three months ago. 

“Mabhouh was one of the co-founders of Hamas’ military wing and had a long history of action against both Israel and Palestinians,” said Dr. Magnus Ranstorp, research director at the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defense College. “He is believed to have been involved in the abduction and murder of two Israelis soldiers in 1989, Ilan Sa'adon and Avi Sasportas, and he also killed some Palestinians during the First Intifada,” Ranstorp told NOW.

Mabhouh played a key military role in Gaza until his departure to Syria. He was then in charge of supplying the party with weapons and financing, said a Palestinian source who spoke to NOW on condition of anonymity. According to media reports, he also attempted to smuggle truckloads of weapons into Gaza through Sudan in 2009. The convoy, however, was bombed by the Israeli Air Force before it left Africa.

Ranstorp also said that Mabhouh served as a liaison officer between Iran and Hezbollah, with whom he had strong ties, and occupied a central role in Gaza-Iranian relations.  “He was a Mugniyah-like figure, as he had a senior operational role over the last 20 years and, more importantly, forged a closer operational link to Iranian intelligence and al-Quds units [the intelligence arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps],” Ranstorp said.  “He had contact with Hezbollah directly and through Osama Hamdan, who was previously Hamas’ representative to Iran, [and is now the group’s point man in Lebanon].”

According to Ranstorp, Hamas and Hezbollah have cooperated closely since 1992. The Party of God also provided technical support to Hamas with their Kassam rockets. “Cooperation between Hamas and Iran has accelerated as of late, too, and an IRGC official was caught inside Gaza a few years ago. While Hamas used to be reluctant to become a tool of Iran, its approach has changed since the 2008 Gaza war,” Ranstorp said. Today Iran and Syria are thought to be Hamas’ main backers in terms of financial and military support.

Evidence of the Mabhouh-Iran connection was fortified by the sentiment expressed by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast after the killing. He said that the assassination was “another indication of the existence of state terrorism by the Zionist regime. This shows the violation of other countries' sovereignty by this regime."
 
An employee at the Dubai hotel where Mabhouh was murdered, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not allowed to speak to the press, told NOW that Mabhouh visited the hotel on other occasions before his death. But though the emirate is a hub for Iranian businesspeople and political leaders, Ranstorp doubts that there is any truth to rumors of a meeting between Mabhouh and Iranian officials during his trip. “He did not have to travel via Dubai to meet Iranian officials, as he could fly directly from Damascus. He may have been ‘lured’ there by the Israelis or Palestinians for some mission,” he said.

Hamas has vowed to avenge the murder, saying it would do so at a time and place of its choosing, though it has limited military capabilities overseas. Ranstorp excluded the possibility that Hezbollah, which has more organized outposts abroad, might take revenge on behalf of Hamas. He noted the 2009 apprehension of Rawi Fuad Sultani, an Israeli Arab allegedly working for Hezbollah, in a plot to assassinate Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi in retaliation for the Mugniyah killing. It was one of a number of attempts by Hezbollah to avenge Mugniyah’s death that have been thwarted since 2008.

“Hamas is interestingly threatening to target Israel abroad, which would be a radical shift from its previous modus operandi. It will, however, depend on whether it finds out if Palestinians were also involved in the assassination,” added Ranstorp.

 “The most likely scenario is that Hamas will want to try a surgical strike against an Israeli security official or politician. Israel is waiting for a Hezbollah strike in revenge for the Mugniyah assassination, and the support that the Party of God could offer Hamas would only be technical,” Ranstorp said.