There were no delirious celebrations. There was no zaffi, no handing out of sweets, and no random volleys of fire into the night sky (as if we all realized that the last five months have been tragic enough without adding loss of life to the debit column). It was a difficult pregnancy and the new government may still prove to be problem child, but for now cautious optimism is the order of the day even though there is much ground to be made up in winning back popular confidence in the political class.
It wasn’t an auspicious beginning. Within an hour of its announcement, the Kataeb Party and Michel Pharaon had voiced their disapproval – the former wanting the Education portfolio, and the latter the Information Ministry for the Greek Catholics – while Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday was widely reported as having only accepted this particular formula because it is the lesser of two evils – the other being civil conflict. This was how he told it to the nation: “I want to be honest from the start; this government can be a chance to renew faith in the state and its institutions... or it can turn into a replay of our failures.”
It is a fair bet that he was referring to regional dynamics, in particular the West’s stand-off with Iran, when he spoke of replaying failures. Has Lebanon been filed away as a done deal or will it be further buffeted by the winds of conflict and internal strife?
For the time being, the nascent administration is in Hariri’s hands. It remains to be seen whether the son of the assassinated former prime minister – whose death, and its consequences, have shaped the political landscape of the previous five years – has emerged from this cabinet impasse with a reputation as a wise reader of both regional and local complexities, a man who held his nerve, or a man who ultimately surrendered too much of his June 7 election victory by bowing to one too many opposition demands.
Yet if we assume – and accept – that the current cabinet formula received regional blessing, then we must also take the position that Lebanon has a government, and there is no reason why it should not work. Hariri & Co. must now convince us of their commitment, not just of getting on with the business of government, but of seriously addressing the chronic obstacles that have denied us progress toward true statehood. It will be a hard, but not impossible, sell.
For again, if we suppose – because for the moment we must – that the opposition does not have an extra card up the presidential sleeve to invoke the blocking third, and if we also suppose – again because for the moment we must – that all parties are committed to moving forward as one to achieve Lebanon’s long list of national priorities as part of a genuine national-unity government, then Hariri can build on his father’s legacy of fulfilling Lebanon’s considerable potential.
We have waited five years. If waiting five months is the price we must pay to be able to have a genuine debate on Hezbollah’s weapons (without doubt the biggest obstacle to national development and peace), broad consensus on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and a whole host of economic reforms – including the privatization of the electricity, telecom and water sectors – then so be it.
It is easy to speak of failure and disappointment, but we must also remember that although the path to modern statehood and a democratic ideal has been strewn with challenges, tragedies and setbacks – ones that would have killed off lesser nations – Lebanon is nonetheless still on that journey, a journey it began on March 14, 2005.
Today is a day for cautious optimism.